Recently, the glyphosate market has seen a strong rebound, with prices continuing to rise, reflecting a phase of tight supply-demand dynamics. As of August 7, the average market price for 95% glyphosate technical reached 26,399 yuan per ton, up 0.37% from the previous week, with FOB port quotations at $3,750-$3,770 per ton, representing a year-on-year increase of over 5%. This round of price hikes is primarily driven by the interplay of supply and demand factors: on the supply side, production halts for maintenance, environmental restrictions, and low inventory levels have tightened market availability; on the demand side, robust procurement during the South American pesticide application season and increased domestic demand for summer farmland weeding have provided strong support.
Supply Tightens as Producers Limit Shipments, Pushing Prices Higher
Currently, global glyphosate production capacity stands at approximately 1.2 million tons per year, with China accounting for 66% of the share. Major producers include industry leaders such as Xingfa Group, Wynca Group, and Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals. Although global capacity remains in surplus overall, the market in 2025 is experiencing "periodic tightness." On one hand, rising prices of raw materials like glycine and yellow phosphorus—due to environmental production curbs—have forced some small and medium-sized producers to suspend operations, lowering overall industry utilization rates. On the other hand, leading companies such as Xingfa Group and Wynca Group have adopted a "limited shipment" strategy, with some even halting new orders for August, intensifying market scarcity and fueling upward price momentum.
Strong Demand from South America Boosts Export Performance
About 70% of glyphosate demand relies on exports, primarily to South American markets like Brazil and Argentina. Since May, the peak pesticide application season in South America has driven a surge in procurement, significantly increasing China's glyphosate exports. Data shows that cumulative glyphosate exports from January to May grew by 13.32% year-on-year, with particularly strong demand from Brazil, the U.S., and Russia. Domestically, rising summer farmland weeding demand has also spurred downstream formulation manufacturers to stock up, further supporting price increases.
Industry Profit Recovery Underway, Leading Companies See Earnings Turnaround
In 2024, the glyphosate industry suffered widespread losses due to low prices, but this year's price rebound has initiated a profit recovery phase. Xingfa Group noted that for every 1,000 yuan per ton increase in glyphosate prices, annual profits could rise by approximately 200 million yuan. Similarly, Wynca Group and Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals are benefiting from the price uptrend, demonstrating significant earnings flexibility. Additionally, Hebang Bio plans to expand its glyphosate capacity in Indonesia by 200,000 tons per year while advancing a 500,000-ton glycine project domestically, which may further optimize the industry's supply structure in the future.
Market Outlook: Short-Term High Volatility, Mid-to-Long-Term Focus on Capacity and Policy Variables
In the short term, with the South American peak season still ongoing and restocking demand in China, glyphosate prices are likely to remain high with fluctuations. Some institutions predict prices may reach 28,000–30,000 yuan per ton between September and October. However, in the mid-to-long term, caution is warranted as demand may soften post the overseas planting season, and new capacity expansions could introduce downward pressure. Furthermore, environmental policies and the progress of genetically modified crop adoption will be key factors shaping the industry's trajectory.
Overall, the glyphosate market is experiencing a phase of recovery driven by supply-demand imbalances, with industry profitability shifting from negative to positive. While companies should capitalize on the current profit window, they must also closely monitor policy developments and market variables to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the industry's cyclical fluctuations.
More information can be found at CCM Glyphosate China Monthly Report.
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